A GIS-Based Geospatial Risk Modeling Framework for Natural Gas Distribution Pipeline Infrastructure Integrity and Resilience

Abstract

Distribution pipeline systems constitute a critical component of national energy infrastructure, supplying natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers across extensive urban and rural networks. Ensuring the safety and reliability of these systems requires continuous monitoring, risk assessment, and proactive integrity management strategies. This study develops a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)–based analytical framework for implementing a Distribution Integrity Management Program (DIMP) aligned with regulatory requirements under 49 CFR Part 192 Subpart P. The proposed framework integrates spatial pipeline datasets, environmental risk indicators, infrastructure characteristics, and operational history into a unified geospatial risk modeling environment. Pipeline integrity is operationalized as a quantitative risk index derived from threat indicators including corrosion susceptibility, excavation damage potential, natural force hazards, and material degradation conditions. The analytical dataset includes spatially segmented pipeline assets linked with attribute information such as installation year, pipe material, diameter, operating pressure, and environmental exposure conditions. Spatial modeling procedures include geospatial risk weighting, hotspot detection, and predictive threat scoring using GIS-based statistical modeling techniques. Risk indicators are combined through a weighted scoring algorithm to produce segment-level integrity risk scores across the pipeline network. Preliminary modeling results demonstrate that integrating GIS spatial analytics with distribution integrity management workflows significantly improves the identification of high-risk pipeline segments and enhances decision-making for inspection prioritization, maintenance planning, and regulatory compliance. The findings demonstrate that GIS-driven integrity management frameworks provide scalable and data-driven tools for managing complex pipeline distribution systems. By combining spatial analytics with regulatory integrity management programs, the proposed framework supports improved infrastructure resilience, risk mitigation, and public safety outcomes across natural gas distribution networks.